Are we alone in the universe Where are all the aliens Fermi Paradox Solutions Drake Equation


Arvin Ash


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when you look up into the night sky do you ever think about what else is out there do you wonder whether another being like you on a distant planet in another galaxy maybe looking back at you you probably already know that there are more stars in the universe and all the sands and all the beaches of Earth in fact there are ten times more stars than all the grains of sand here on earth the number is almost an incomprehensible 7 followed by 22 zeroes and the latest data from the Kepler space telescope shows us that there are planets around nearly every star in fact Kepler data shows that just within our own Milky Way galaxy which is only one of a trillion other galaxies in the universe there may be 10 billion earth-sized planets orbiting sun-like stars in the habitable zone of its solar system physicists and Rieko Fermi in the 1950s asked why given the vast number of potential planets with life haven't we been contacted by aliens yet this is a profound question the answer to which is not only mind-blowing but also pretty scary what's going on the answer is coming up right now Fermi reason that any civilization with a modest amount of rocket technology and an in modest amount of Imperial incentive could colonize the galaxy by building a I robot probes that could self replicate as the journey beyond their home planet even though the distances between habitable planets are much too vast to be traversed in a human lifetime the theoretical robots would have had millions or even billions of years to make the journey and given the age of the universe an intelligent species could have evolved tens of millions of years before us if so some should have conquered an entire galaxy by this time and we should be able to detect that this seems to be a reasonable assessment because when our instruments look out into the universe we can see that the material conditions for life that are present here on earth are also present everywhere else like light water organic calm and gases such as oxygen carbon nitrogen etc can be found pretty much everywhere on the universe and this would have you believe that life should be abundant in the universe and most scientists do think that life is probably present on many other planets but the fact is that our instruments can see no evidence from decades of observation of any telltale signs of intelligent life anywhere in our solar system our galaxy or the rest of the observable universe why is this so what's going on in order to detect the kind of signal that Fermi was talking about even though life may be abundant the mere presence of life is not enough that life also has to be super intelligent one that sends out electromagnetic signals in the form of radio and television waves into the heavens and in order for us to detect intelligent life on other galaxies that species would have to be a space colonizing species which would leave telltale signs such as huge amounts of radio signals or signs of huge energy consumption such a galaxy should light up unnaturally like a Christmas tree so even having intelligent beings on a planet is not enough because for example many intelligent beings have evolved here on earth like whales dolphins parrots dogs even dinosaurs like Troodon which lived sixty-five million years ago were quite intelligent but super intelligence spacefaring species like us humans only evolved once in the 4 billion year history of Earth so the biggest question is how rare is super intelligence the observation selection effect creates a bias in our thinking because no matter how unlikely super intelligence is in the universe because it has happened here on earth we are biased to think that it should be easy and can happen anywhere no matter how unlikely it actually is in other words even if the odds of a super intelligence emerging on a planet is 1 in one quadrillion planets we are going to indeed find ourselves on that one in a quadrillion planet where this improbable event occurred so just because life evolved here on earth the one data point we have it tells us very little about the probability of life elsewhere until we can get at least one other data point which we don't have currently the leap to the super intelligence of us humans has happened only once and even this it seems may have happened due to the confluence of many unlikely coincidences there are several features of our evolution that makes it reasonable to assume that we got here due to extreme circumstances for example going from simple single-celled bacteria to complex organelle containing cells from which all complex animal life came took about 1.5 billion years on earth to evolve this shows that a huge number of random trials and errors probably occurred over 1.5 billion years before resulting in a few cells getting lucky they were perhaps spontaneously able to either incorporate other cells into themselves or mutate huge beneficial features but maybe that 1.5 billion Europe timeframe is very short in the scheme of things maybe the natural progression of such an evolutionary leap is on the order of 20 billion or more years more than the lifetime of the universe this is something we just don't know in addition humans the only super intelligent being to evolve on earth have only been around for the past 250 thousand years which is a minuscule nothing in the 4 billion year history of life on earth and there are a myriad of possibilities that could have prevented our evolution I talk more about this in another video all indications are that life is not so easy to come by is intelligence and evolutionary imperative it may be if for no other reason than the fact that intelligence has evolved multiple times on earth but super intelligence that is intelligence that leads to the colonization of space does not appear to be so there is no evolutionary reason for life-forms to be a space colonizing species there's no impending threat to the earth that we know of currently that threatens our survival there's nothing that space colonization does to our species to help us eat or reproduce better are there physical laws that inevitably cause intelligence to be selected naturally that is given lots of different life forms is it inevitable that the most intelligent life-forms will dominate the planet over time yes that may be the case but we don't seem to have evidence that this intelligent life form will continue to evolve into a super intelligent life-form like we did it is likely that earth is indeed a very very precious and special place and that should scare anybody that thinks we can abuse it we can look at the Fermi paradox mathematically the Drake Equation created by Frank Drake in 1961 shows the many variables used to estimate the number of active extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy with some of the latest data from Kepler we can estimate the first three variables with a good degree of accuracy and estimate some of the others but the F sub I the fraction of planets with super intelligence is an utter guess and by all indications maybe an extremely small number we know that F sub P the fraction of stars with planets is large nearly 1 but our failure to detect intelligent life tells us that there may be a filter or several filters that prevent super intelligent life for an emergent there is a possibility that there's a great filter between the beginning of life on earth and where we are now or there's a great filter between where we are now in some event in the future that prevents intelligent life from colonizing the galaxy this is why finding life on one of the other planets in our own solar system would spell doom for us why because finding a life-form that evolved independently of earth on a planet in our own solar system would mean that life is likely very easy to evolve this would mean that the probability of the great filter being in our future is much more likely than that filter being in the past this would mean that we are probably staring down the barrel of a gun that is about to fire in our face the great filter would be an event that is likely to spell the death of our civilization and technology so let's hope there's no other life on our own solar system but getting back to the question posed by Fermi why haven't elion contacted us there are theorists that say that aliens have already visited us but we were not interesting enough to bother with or that we're not enough to contact or that aliens are keeping us it like in a zoo and have conspired to make us unaware of it although none of these are illogical possibilities they seem to be more concoctions of our imagination and likely possibilities they seem to be complicated answers to a simple question the evidence points to superintelligence rarity than any kind of potential conspiracy by other racists to keep us out of the loop and besides even if they were keeping us out of the loop it's not like we are passively waiting for the phone to ring we are actively seeking the technological signatures of other advanced civilizations which we would detect regardless the simplest explanation is that intelligent life is very difficult to evolve it fits all the evidence but given the size of the universe even if life is extremely rare it can still be abundant perhaps the most humbling part is that even though many intelligent life forms may be present in our universe they are so far away that we may continue to look up at them and they look back at us for thousands of years to come and yet we may never meet or get a chance to know one another our Vanaja if you like our videos please support us by subscribing subscribing cost you nothing it just means that you're going to be informed whenever we put up a new video we make about one to two videos a week I'll see you in the next video [Music]