Bitcoin Serious Take on the Global Economic Recession Hedge with Cash


BlockRoots: Crypto Market Analysis


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[Music] everybody's Josh with block crews just wanted to make a quick video here hopefully not too long to talk about the market what's going on because there's been a lot going on over the past week as you know it's been a few days since we've made a video that's because again with our own families and our own lives of course that's been a priority as for me my kids are actually home from school because in my state they actually shut down the public schools this week we know that many of you are impacted in many different ways we know that some of you may possibly even work and the restaurant business and food industry we know that those industries have actually shut down a lot of states and big cities as well as far as just to have carryout so that definitely impacts the livelihood of many people so you know we're thinking of you guys and when it comes to the coronavirus and just the impact that it's having on our economy now is this really drastic and that's with everything from traditional markets to Bitcoin and we just know that you know YouTube is not that important so we're thankful for you to be here and as far as Bitcoin we do want to talk about that because it's probably why you're why you're here and you want to hear our thoughts on what we think is gonna happen and and so it's what we'll talk about we're going to talk about that we'll talk about quickly about you know the traditional markets what's been going on with the Fed and the government here in the USA as we know even if you're not in the USA that greatly impacts the Bitcoin market in traditional markets which are you know correlated and so so we'll talk about that it's kind of a meme now how everybody talks about the uncorrelated if Bitcoin when when everything pulls back Bitcoin pulls back - right so at least now in this time always do your own research nothing is financial advice and let's go ahead and look at Bitcoin and so here's the monthly chart right Bitcoin honestly were forming likely the largest monthly down candle that we've ever seen as far as price wise percentage-wise I could go back I'm not for sure I'm not gonna sit there and calculate it but it's close if Bitcoin didn't bounce from from you know three point six K then it by far would be the largest down candle in monthly history and it's only March 16th we're only halfway through the month right now and so currently it's 42 percent down and so from open to close and honestly from here we it's probably safe to say that we continue to see more downside and so we'll talk about that so going into the weekly chart let's just kind of go down the different time frames you're gonna notice that of course right Bitcoin just dropped straight from 8k all the way down to 3.1 K in a matter of hours the other day and so the weekly didn't close very well either if you actually look right the weekly close underneath some of these levels right here that's not probably best case scenario it's not a great look for for Bitcoin right now now as far as the day chart we can go ahead and go into that just because again the weekly chart really the best thing for the weekly right now is if you want to look and see as far as weekly support right it's it's way down here you can see the high-volume node down here around 4000 it's very likely the way that the price is breaking down that we're gonna hit back down there again primarily to why I say that it's not just because of technical analysis because ta sometimes I would say that you don't want to throw it out the window because what's the point in me even talking right now it does help you to figure out where the next price points are potential balances if something looks bullish or bearish but at the same time you know it's important to know the biggest impact now on the Bitcoin market it's not technical analysis it's not the weekly clothes it's not this or that it's the coronavirus it's the traditional markets it's the economy the global economy as a whole right and so you need to slip that sink in because so many people right now and I'm I'm included I think Bitcoin in a normal market Bitcoin would be a phenomenal value right now right but we're not in a normal market we're in a Black Swan event a recession regardless of what anybody wants to call it or not but it's not a normal market and so you have to keep that in mind a lot of people you know just just just today or heard this week there's there was somebody on a big YouTube channel talking about $100,000 Bitcoin and that's all good and well stock to flowing all that but when we're in a recession that honestly just started in this past month with a coronavirus that continues to spread and spread and spread that we haven't stopped yet we don't have a vaccine yet we don't have a cure for yet it's hard to talk about $100,000 Bitcoin when we could see levels as low as under 3000 so let's keep level-headed let's talk about that I think I think Bitcoin can hit a hundred thousand dollars one day but it's not really the time and place to talk about that I think if you do believe that what you need to do is set entry levels is to look at different areas that you feel like would be that you could buy Bitcoin at a specific price range I mean we can talk about that too I mean I certainly think anything there 3k is great I think any anything even at these levels long-term are great if you plan to buy put in your ledger and walk away I think that's great but if you're looking to actively trade and if you're looking to get the most you know a Bitcoin for your dollar then maybe you want to look at lower levels and so as we talk about that we can look at potential targets but on the day chart Bitcoin really is just ranging right because Bitcoin fell really hard whenever you fall 40% in a day like that you're gonna arrange for a little bit right but with that said there is some volatility here you're gonna notice the wicks of the candles back and forth right let's go ahead and move to the four hour probably a lot better to look at this a lot of volatility okay now just the drop and notice the the wicks on the candle right back and forth and why is that why is there a lot of volatility right now because a lot of people will ask that and that's because there's a lack of liquidity now Bitcoin in itself compared to traditional markets isn't a liquid asset now it is by far the most liquid asset and crypto markets we've talked about that before but it's in the liquid asset okay especially when you consider how much of the volume is not real you know across a lot of exchanges that you know that most people have never even heard of before and so if you were to take every single one of those quote bitcoins off those exchanges at the same time there'd be a lot of people who'd be in a hat and happy who couldn't withdrawal because that wouldn't be there and not enough Bitcoin would be there if everybody had to prove their keys right with the proof of keys so I think with that said I dropped like this a lot of people then step out of the way they move into cash even market makers and big players they move out of the way and you're gonna see volatility because there's not a lot of levels in between there's not a lot of people in the order book putting bids and ask buying and selling there's less people so therefore the price just whips back and forth easier it's easier to push the price back and forth so you're gonna see a lot of volatility and really how we trade that specifically is that we lower our position size right so typically if I'm somebody who trades with a couple Bitcoin which typically I like to do I'm not I'm not gonna sit here in LARP and talk about hey man I've got a million dollar position down I don't have a million dollar position down I think I think not at these levels especially you know so if I have two or three Bitcoin typically in a trade then maybe I'm gonna level down to even 1/2 a Bitcoin quite a bit right depending on who you are depending on how much you trade but just having smaller position sizes reducing that risk overall and you can still make a lot of money trading in a highly volatile market at lower Bitcoin prices and so that's one thing that you want to do but again it is very volatile and I think that you'll continue to see that because a lot of money was taking out the market to hedge in cash and that's why you see the big drop right here and you may have heard about that even gold dropped down a lot of people stepped out of the way a lot of big players sold because they had the heads up on what was coming or they knew about this and so they they sold and they're out a Bitcoin and as I've said before on a tweet earlier in a week I said look a lot of money came out by big players don't expect that money to come in any sense anytime soon right so expect a lot of volatility expect a lot of movement back and forth but don't expect the price of Bitcoin just going straight back up because if anything the place too short was around six K right if you look at this area right here and what happened right we looked at we looked at this level as a resistance level price came up below it went sideways again and of course with Donald Trump's speech on Friday President Trump he really just pumped traditional markets and you're gonna notice that you know one of the best days ever in the market in traditional markets coin is a correlated asset believe it or not right people want to believe that but if the market starts to go up traditional markets bitcoins gonna go up okay and that's what happened and so that's that's been a very good reaction but at the same time right there are some other things to go on this weekend and so that specifically was when the US Federal Reserve discussed cutting rights to zero in to launch seven hundred billion dollar quantitative easing program okay to try to take some pressure off the markets possibly pump the market and typically reaction to that in the past has always been that the market pumps well this time not so much now this is the S&P this is the SPX this is not the the futures that open on Friday but the reaction to that not open on Friday that closed on Friday but opened on Sunday the reaction to that on Sunday was that futures immediately sold off right they didn't buy into that what happened was you know we had to pump people got out right they sold they took advantage of it and hopefully people didn't buy in Friday thinking that the market was gonna do to pump we just talked about you can't fall for it because the coronavirus has just started and if you listen to people who are experienced in markets they'll all tell you that it's the coronavirus right that is the big major impact on this market creating fear creating panic with the economy and not until we see more people recover from that are we gonna see the market turnaround in Reverse and so until then sideways likely and more down as well and so but we did see that sell-off okay as far as over the past day we saw the market continued to reduce I believe that it's down another 11% today right i think the Dow Jones is at least so-so in the reaction that see we saw Bitcoin do the same thing come down balance and with that said it's where we're currently at right if we want to go ahead and look at the hourly just gonna notice that Bitcoin did fall down as low as 4,300 but then it bounced back up but overall I don't really like where it's at just watch that I think it close underneath $4,900 is gonna lead to more downside to around 4200 are below interests down here with the volume profile you're gonna notice that it is sub 4,000 so do I think that we eventually see 4,000 sub 4,000 buy into that at the moment is is yes I do believe that we see that and I do believe that due to the circumstances of the coronavirus if we continue to see more and more businesses shut down the economy continue to go down if we see the traditional markets continue to go down the SPX you know as far as that goes if this continues to move down then yeah we're gonna continue to to move down in the market as well one thing that I did say that that got a lot of attention was just talking about Clark's post just about how look just with Trump's attempt to pump the markets on Sunday for the markets to sell off that fast it's like your favorite fighter getting Kayode in the first four seconds of the fight right and so for me to see that for many people to see that actually move more to cash and so for me I feel like the risk of being in cash is far less in being a Bitcoin now as far as Bitcoin again if you believe in long term in Bitcoin which I do I still hope Bitcoin but I did move to more cash because my strategy in the end is to always hold some Bitcoin but in the end also to it's to be able to take advantage of that Bitcoin that is highly volatile not I feel like is worth that will be worth a lot one day as far as value to buy it low and sell it high it's just like anybody else and so that involves trying to get the best prices possible at this point in time after the reaction of the traditional markets so for the markets to react as they did on Sunday after the US Federal Reserve cut the rates and the quantitative easing for the markets to react like that you know that there's likely more downside and so that's just kind of our sense at the moment and I think that you have to really take it day-by-day the markets move so fast it's one of those things where you know I could walk away from the computer for a few days going to go on a small little sabbatical away from technology just because I'm stuck inside anyways right anyway for the Cova 19 but if I had just walked away from the computer and opened up three days later I mean the market could be up or down drastically so you want to keep an eye on it day by day luckily for traditional markets they close on the weekends even though bitcoin is up and down consistently I think that there's a lot of money to be gained right now for serve for some certain players and traders big traders and so I think they're gonna take advantage of that right now so as far as that goes can it drop lower than 3000 I mean I think certainly so I do believe that now is the time to educate yourself on the markets now is the time to learn now is the time to prepare yourself another tweet that I talked about also is that stacking bits good friend great trader talked about just the liquidity issues with possibly with tether if everybody is in tether right now or even stable coins putting all their money in that of course we know that the tether balances have been at an all-time high right now on exchanges and so if everybody moves into tether and then tries to get all that out at once what's going to happen and so again if you are looking to get in any type of quote hedge let's just cash our stable coin I certainly recommend USD I mean USD there's specific platforms that you can get USD on whether it's coinbase gemini bit tricks now even has USD Kraken has USD I think bitstamp as well so a lot of different exchanges that you can do that with and so just you know make sure that you're thinking about that it's a lot easier to get in the USD it and to get back and forth and then USD depending but the good news is is there's a lot more markets even on exchanges that most people don't use like bit tricks right that you can actually store USD and then the spread might not be as good when you buy in but when the market drops I mean what does it matter anyways if you're paying a few dollars more on bit tricks compared to coinbase right so just be aware of that I would I would definitely look into getting into cash if you're looking to hedge and if you're not looking to get into USD if you want to hold your Bitcoin if you're afraid that you're going to sell your Bitcoin at 5,000 it's gonna drop to 3,000 and you're gonna miss it and it just went back up to 6,000 and you have to pay more for then don't do it you don't you don't need to you don't need to get into cash necessarily and in the time anyway the the time anyways to get into cash was it was above 8,000 before this massive drop right and so I got was really fortunate I was talking to some people I did sell one around 8,000 thinking that I would buy the dip at 71 hundred right and then and of course it just dropped right through that but I'm glad that I got in cash at that time and also had one around ninety-five ninety-six hundred as well but anyway just a little bit but yeah the time to get in was was then and you know if you're not in yet don't feel the pressure to need to do so I don't I don't want you to feel like oh my gosh is Bitcoin going to $1,000 and I mean it could but we don't know that right all we know is there's buyers right now at the high 3,000 until it breaks that area I'm just gonna have to wait and see like I said take it day by day wash the traditional markets if traditional markets continue to do really really poorly I mean I don't expect Bitcoin to do very well or to bounce back very quick and this is probably gonna be a while and I think a lot of people are asking how long is this going to take and I think that it's going to take a while I think the stock to flow analysis of you know a lot of people are talking about the 100k by 2021 I just don't see that happening not not next year it's just this virus has just it hasn't just started but it's still really bad because if you go on this John Hopkins University of Medicine dashboard for the corona virus spread for the total confirmed cases you're gonna notice that I looked at this a long time ago and John Hopkins got this up pretty quick in that there was not near as many red dots there were barely any red dots in the United States and look at it now the United States is covered in red and so we just know that every just every area right is just covered you know you've got New York with over almost close to a thousand cases California 500 cases you even got the islands down here right with even these smallest islands have multiple people with cases of corona virus and a lot of these places down here don't have great healthcare meaning that the spread is likely going to be easier even though there's not as many people but you know for the government to cut down to shut down public schools for months right for the president to even say that he thinks this is gonna go on until at least August and a lot of schools open up in August meaning that they may be pushed back until September or October but in order for them to do that and order them for them to shut down businesses and have a major impact on the economy as well as none of the federal cuts working as well this is gonna be a while until prices reverse and move back up and for me again if for some reason as I talked about before price moves back up to this major area up here this POC I'm likely going to try to put in a an ask for a short there I don't think it's gonna even make it back up there at this point in time we could have a balance we could have a good week we could have good weeks in between right we could have another balance up towards six K and then back down I mean just take it day by day at least with this video what I wanted to do is just talk to you about current price just the reality of things right now what we're doing as far as cash not using stable coins and just to be smart just to be smart to get baby by day and keep yourself healthy and so looks also to giveaway let's let's let's end this on a good note okay let's end it on a good note giving away one Bitcoin ah I wish one Bitcoin let's give away a hundred dollars a Bitcoin to somebody oh let's just well on the right this is going you never know we could maybe one day you give a Bitcoin away and the winner is Richard Schwartz Schwartz dfw awesome content thank you so Richard I am going to reply to your comment on the last video and just say hey leave your wallet Bitcoin wallet I'll send you $100 a Bitcoin and then from there what we'll do is if you're interested in that just join the community below by subscribing click subscribe button and we're happy to give away another 100 dollars a Bitcoin here soon and so we'll have some more market updates the next one I believe that it's going to be Ryan so he's gonna give some market updates again on his thoughts this week so he'll do that be on the lookout for that as well again the most important thing is for you guys to stay safe stay healthy again spend time with your loved ones you know find the simple things in life and enjoy it because that's what's important and again if you're trading out there you know be safe and trade effectively and we'll talk to you guys soon