Coronavirus Prepare For National Lockdown

all right everyone is time to get ready for a national lockdown you can sure smell it it's coming as well I need to talk to you about how cases are exploding by a factor of 10 every 14 days and then we're going to talk about what you can do during this next period of time which will be a quarantine hello everyone this is Chris Martenson here with your SARS Cove 2 aka the honey badger virus update for March 15th 2020 and this is Sunday it's about 12:30 in the afternoon so my data is probably gonna be just a little off if you're watching this in the evening alright so let's get going first as we look at these charts we can clearly see the exponential nature of this this is total cases outside of China here we are in a linear chart so of course it has this shaped like a hockey stick but as we've learned the gold standard for detecting if something is truly growing in a logarithmic or exponential fashion or geometric depending on what we're talking about same words more or less for our purposes where we're going from one to ten to a hundred to one thousand ten thousand a hundred thousand to a million is the gold standard is to see do you have a flat line so maybe there's one case there and then there's a sort of a slightly different slope there but those are straight lines more or less and that tells us that we are experiencing exponential explosion in cases and by the way something we have to keep in mind is that this is with very poor levels of testing under the don't test don't tell policy that a lot of countries including the United States many others were actually running so we're looking another thing we can glean from that exponential or logarithmic chart because we can ask the question well how many days between it growing by a factor of 10 so here grows from 10 to a hundred and that took seven days if we count those little dots and then to go from a hundred cases reported to a thousand that took nineteen days but this is under the don't test don't tell policy I think this is inappropriate we can see the slope of the line pick up a little I think this is mostly due to testing at this point this is a 13 day stretch to go from 10 from 1,000 to 10,000 and we have it quite hit 100,000 external outside of China cases as of this recording because the 15th isn't noted on here but I'm gonna bet you anything when it does it's gonna land right on that hundred K line right there so that would be 14 days what does that mean it means in two more weeks in another 14 days there's going to be a million cases worldwide it means in a month we're gonna be at which is two weeks after that we're gonna be at ten million cases case case cluster cluster boom this is the boom stage that we've been worried about we've been talking about it that's gonna flood the hospital systems that's why we are huge advocates of the flatten the curve movement that we have to do everything we can and everybody has a role in this isn't the authorities doing it one way and us doing it another this is we're all in this together all right you know I keep telling you the China cases yeah at least seem legit I found this graph look at this there they are going through their exponential fit oh that's it good job all numbers are accurate thank you have a nice day that just is uh absolutely not legit so I do think that China led the way and showed us that you do have to entertain a very very stiff quarantine what we don't have from China is any evidence to say that you can then relax that quarantine let people out and then all of a sudden you won't get a resumption in cases so but this chart just yeah I got a laugh at that totally not legit didn't happen exactly like that a little bit of a concern because we do note that Malaysia had a big uptick in cases here for today that was reported or maybe that was yesterday I'd have to look at the timestamp on that but at any rate cases and you know this is south of Cambodia here's Singapore that's been controlling its cases very very well but Malaysia suddenly with a big uptick and it's a concern because we're kind of open summer is going to take care of this I presented evidence that showed that a certain combination of humidity and temperatures seemed to prevent the spread of this thing well I mean look at this 96 96 these temperatures are well outside the band that we thought maybe this would spread well in humidities are all right in the sweet spot however this is a you know I think this remember the sweet spots it was from 45 to 80 percent humidity so at any rate maybe it's the humidity more than that temperature don't know or maybe these people are all working in air conditioned buildings and this stuff spreads very nicely in air-conditioned buildings which creates a very nice condition for the honey badger to crawl through the pipes and get out there and infect people more concerning than that however is that the Dutch experience so far is telling us that half the people have to peep more than half in intensive care units are under the age of 50 so not huge numbers yet between 40 and 50 chrono patients in critical condition and but more than half of those are under the age of 50 years and there are also young people in there so let's go on I'm going to continue on in this particular article rember all of these links are here and I'm also going to be posting those below this so that you can just click on them and you don't have to get writers cramp trying to track those all right half are in the ICU under 50 here we go first continuing that article a 16 year old boy from Breda is infected with the corona virus currently in the intensive care unit of the Aurasma MC Sophia Children's Hospital his family calls on the whole of the Netherlands wake up and take this virus seriously okay so on a 16 year old boy in the ICU that is not a good sign so it can't happen of course we know the statistics are are low you know looked like it was a point two percent death factor for people in this age bracket that's one in 500 maybe this boy was just one of those unlucky few in that one and 500 but this statistic says that something is different and often we're gonna be adjusting these as we go forward that's not a good sign to see that many quote-unquote young people in the ICU and doc Dutch doctors have also been informed about patients from Lombardi Italy excuse me who confirmed data that young and relatively healthy people are also affected by the corona virus okay and I'm gonna be telling you why that's really important in a minute the youngest into intubated Cove 19 patient honey badger virus patient is a girl of 16 years old and two children I don't know what that means in terms a JH were admitted to the pediatric IC for observation but did not require additional therapy so confirming of course that kids the younger they are the better they are for whatever sets of reasons the first patient in that Italian region to receive a ventilator was ventilated for 18 days while he was relatively healthy it was a 38 year old otherwise very healthy man who ran marathons for this okay so it does hit younger people continuing in this article a little lower down this is the part that I think jumped out the most for me even more than young people are also affected is that the main risk factor was obesity okay the main risk factor for intensive care uptake is obesity so don't know why that is but certainly that comorbidity is actually the number one thing that's that's presenting at this point in time so remember we've got to flatten the curve we really want to avoid ending up in this zone up here saturating our healthcare system beyond its capacity so that it begins to break down this is how we do that right here we join this movement and now I'm gonna take you to some really really fascinating very very well done animations that came to us out of the Washington Post here's the link for that and what I want to do here is just run these a couple times these are great these explain a couple of things so let's just kick this one off and get it going so what we're doing here is tracking those little balls as they bounce into each other they're just infecting other little balls and so you can watch that chart at the top and what we're seeing is the total amount of cases eventually people recover so you set a recovery time on this those are the people who are in pink now wandering around and this is what you should see over time is that sort of a shape as as disease runs through and then eventually that would be full herd immunity because every single ball has been is pink in this particular case let's run that one more time so we can just see this there's four separate simulations like this and they're just I think get the point across very very well so this is a completely unrestricted Society everybody's moving around nobody has any clue about this disease they're coughing in public they're not wearing masks they're all bunched up and big sort of the groups are going out to bars and you will see that sort of a shape now how would you go about be controlling this so one thing is you can actually put a border in so here's a second simulation which has a border that's this line right here and the border now opens and we let a few flights through we let we can't stop travel we've got to keep the airlines coming through so what happens when we just even allow a few people to come through into our society this is why we say you have to seal the borders and as much as you possibly can because as soon as you allow the infection and boom you are going to get it completely and what was interesting about this let's run that one more time is just how quickly this does spread so here it is in country a we're just gonna allow one flight and we're gonna let this flight we're gonna let it flight in and here comes here comes the flight and that's it with something that spreads this easily all you need to do is just let even one or two passengers in and you're dealing with it alright let's talk about doing it right you know based on that data New Zealand the doing it right edition this comes from grey man posting it to peak prosperity this just got posted last night I believe New Zealand tightens the border controls to flatten the curve yes and so let's look at this effective from midnight Sunday that's today all travelers except those coming from the Pacific Islands all right which I believe don't have any cases recorded right now we'll have to self isolate for 14 days on their arrival to New Zealand like that's all travelers not foreign travelers not people of any particular country region ethnicity anything like that all travelers including New Zealanders has to self isolate 14 days these are the toughest rules in the world according to the PM I believe that might be the case she told New Zealanders not to travel overseas if they don't have to an issued stark advice no hugs hungee or handshakes all right all cruise ships have been asked not to come to New Zealand until June 30th there will be no further announcements on mass mass gatherings and strict new border exit measures for people traveling to the Pacific have also been put in place people who have traveled outside of New Zealand the past 14 days are not permitted to travel to the Pacific Islands note so they're you know the Pacific Islands don't have this stuff then let's keep it that way so they're in full isolation right now so don't do it no travel to the Pacific for clothes or casual context of a confirmed case no travel for anyone who is symptomatic of course that makes sense health assessment including temperature checks will be done and restrictions prevent foreign nationals traveling from or transiting through mainly in China or Iran from entering New Zealand not sure why that doesn't also call out Spain France Germany Italy most of Europe actually the German sorry the government has also issued a stern warning for people with health conditions to reconsider overseas cruises I'll go further than that if you're thinking about going on a cruise you are nuts you could not pay me to go on a cruise I don't care if I was losing money because I had one booked I'm not going on a cruise now let's talk about what how we can flatten the curve let's talk about lockdowns now so this is why I think you need to be ready for a national lockdown if your country doesn't already have one because it is the only thing that works you can stay the F home yourself but you know I think governments have to step in and do the lockdowns and let's run a simulation that shows a lockdown this is with 25 percent of the of the dots are now stationary 25 percent of the dots are people that aren't moving or maybe this is 50 percent but any rate look how much more slowly this is all spreading when we don't have everybody moving around and going to gatherings and bumping into each other and coughing on each other in lines and all of that so you can see the shape of that curve up top as it's being drawn is a very very different shape everything's still moving the same speed we haven't slowed the dots down or anything like that it's just very very effective so that's what a lockdown will do for you but now let's look at it with only one in eight of the dots are gonna be moving now this is what a lockdown looks like with one in eight moving so pretty complete lockdown the other one with one in four moving idly alright look at the shape of that curve being drawn up top you're still gonna is still gonna spread you know over time you give this enough time every dots gonna get too pink eventually but look at the shape of that curve so if only one in eight or moving about this is what happens alright so this is a great visual to explain I'm just gonna run that one again because this is what I want to see happen this visualizes I think very very well why and how a lockdown actually works and in this case you know I think the only thing you could maybe criticize is that any time a dot bumps into a dot it instantly changes it you know does this coronavirus instantly infect with a hundred percent accuracy no but but this visually really demonstrates the difference I think between unrestrained movement and a complete lockdown where only one and eight are moving around like that alright I also have a very important piece of information for you this informs my own strategy around how I'm going to self isolate why and why I'm gonna wear a face mask even though it's socially uncomfortable still in the United States I still get these dirty looks from people like I'm you know I'm harshing they're buzz you know and but I'm gonna wear one and here's why this was a really great piece that comes out of Rishi Desai he's chief medical officer and former outbreak investigator at the Center for Disease Control and so here was one little piece he talked about what's called a low inoculum so if you're in a lab and you're gonna inoculate a plate of medium and a petri dish and you're gonna let grow yeast or bacteria on that plate the inoculant it uses is you dip a little wire loop into a culture of the liquid culture there's a bunch of whatever you want to inoculate a bunch of bacteria in it and then you swipe that across the plate and that's called inoculating the plate so he's talking about here talking about how the inoculum is how many of those virus particles you would get in your own body so let's listen in here where there is an interesting wrinkle kind of wondered focus your attention on is where you've got a big all right so when I say inoculum what I mean is lots and lots of secretions full of virus versus a little bit of a secretion full of just a little bit of virus so let's say two scenarios one I'm trying to intubate putting a tube down someone's throat so that I can help them breathe and I'm right in their face when the same I'm not where in 95 minutes because it's soiled or I forgot to put on or I'm in rush admit I'm kind of face to face and that person just kind of coughs or sneezes or gags and all sudden I get in my face kind of a shower of this of these particles full of virus that's a large inoculum compare that to me being at a conference in me grabbing a handle on restroom and maybe someone had forgotten to fully wash their hands me and they got some virus on that on that handle that's a small enough note so these are the two different inoculants what we know from the data is that when you get a large inoculum you get sicker and so the people at risk I mentioned the elderly but the other group at risk for serious disease are health care workers because they're with the sickest patients and the sickest because patients tend to have the highest amounts of virus so that's just one thing to kind of keep in mind all right really important information in there and it's that when you get a larger inoculum you tend to get sicker so I want to talk about this because this is dissing forms why I wear a face mask and how and why hand-washing works the way it does so I want to talk to you about viral loading very quickly so what he's talking about in that video is is that when you get a really large dose like you have a large starting dose of the virus then you have trillions as trillions of virus particles into your body all at once and then so they're starting from a very high level and they start from there and take off like crazy from there so I couldn't find a lot of information about this so I'm only going to be able to give you representative numbers but but I thought this two things first notice here with SARS patients right we're looking at a case here in transfusion medical medical medicine reviews from the 21st of February of 2020 so these people report that within three days after fever onset for SARS again this could be different here for the honey badger virus just a little different 19 of 24 of patients had 19 out of 24 of patients had detectable SARS Cove RNA in plasma so that's in the blood the viral load level rose fast and the maximal viral load was around day four or day five after the onset of fever after which the viral load quickly decreased so this is almost certainly true that we're gonna see that if you tracked your viral load in your body here's let's say right here is where you get first exposed and then it goes up and you're gonna have a lot of them and then it's gonna come down again like this and it might be that up to here you're asymptomatic so you you are capable of getting you know infecting people with this and we'll cover more of that data in just a second but honestly you know the amount of infective sniffs you have here is not nearly as great as it would be here and so what they're saying here is at least for SARS we see that the maximum viral load is around day four day five so if we said you know this is the the onset of symptoms day four day five let's call this day five out here right is where you're gonna have your maximum viral load and then and then they're gonna they're gonna go down after that okay and again you know at some point you'll have sort of let's say minimal infectivity at some level where you're got it it's detectable but you're not really infectious not compared to when you you're just shedding them up here at the height at the worst of it all right um their findings showed viral shedding in plasma so that's into the blood was common when people were clinically ill with SARS virus and that plasma may be a better sample compared with nasal and throat swabs that's probably almost always true and so looking at all of that we don't know how fast this viral load is actually replicating in the body I couldn't well I'm sure somebody knows I couldn't find out that data which I want to ask to answer this question which is how quickly how many hours does it take for this virus once it's in your body to double and double and double again so I don't have that data so I'm going to show you something representative this going to begin to explain this idea of why starting with a low inoculum level would have a better outcome for you and that if you get hit with a really high inoculum level that is a big fat blob of trillions and virus particles why that is associated with more serious cases all right so I just made a quick little table here and this is representative only okay this is I don't need anybody coming back saying this is in a queue because I know it's inaccurate cuz I just made it up but I don't have good data so let's just look through here unless this is the viral load you might have and let's imagine and this is totally imaginary that it has a four-hour doubling time so if we got one one virus particle in us honestly it probably wouldn't even make you sick because you need them there's some minimum threshold you need to get exposed to that would lead to illness anything less than that and it's probably going to be unsuccessful why because maybe that one virus got in you but it didn't travel in your body anywhere where it could possibly latch on to an ace to receptor before it got deactivated you know by proteases in your bloodstream or whatever but let's imagine that if it was able to replicate after four hours and there would be two of them because it doubled doubled every four hours and after eight hours now there's four of them and after twelve hours there's eight of them and after 16 hours there's eight of them I mean and after 20 hours you got sixteen of these and so on see how this is just doubling like that double double double so if you start with a low inoculum and let's imagine oh I don't know this was you know you got some virus particles off of a doorknob well before this things exploded in let's I'm just making stuff up here but let's imagine that this is the number where you suddenly are symptomatic and having a lot it that's where your fever first starts okay and I know these numbers are way off but it's just too representative look how much time you would have you would have basically two or three days for your body to begin to mount a defense recognize this invader get your t-cells all sort of spooled up your white blood cells are busy going there they're identifying it they're replicating they're starting to make antibodies or mounting a defense your body has three days to do that whereas if somebody goes ahead and just coughs into your face maybe you're a well-meaning child who just picked it up at school because kids like the coffin their parents mouths for some unknown reason and you start with this load you only have four hours before you've you've gotten to a symptomatic load your body hasn't had time to adjust to this and it's off to the races these numbers are just exploding after that so with a low inoculum you have time for your body to adjust to it so if we're all going to get the because you know accidentally no matter how careful we are someday there's a particle drifting on the wind or somebody coughed somewhere you know way up in the front of the plane and somehow we caught it if you can get if you could start with a low level of a viral load you give your body time to begin mounting that defense before your body gets overwhelmed okay so that's that's my interpretation of that and so of course the conclusion is wear masks wear eye protection wash your hands right that's why we do these things I don't care what anybody and the government says masks help are they perfect no but if the if the mask catches most of it and a little sneaks around the edge and I get that I'd much rather have that then it's just getting the whole blob because some idiot and the government said masks don't help because they forgot to order them and they don't want to say that because they're personally and professionally embarrassed because that is embarrassing professionally and personally all right which brings us to this so I found this this morning William Culp says I'm a bartender in New York City and watched the bar fill up today with people who are talking to inches apart so they are basically coughing into each other's faces at this point in time you know yelling in a bar young people don't care and aren't listening Stafford risk I'm uncomfortable working William if I were you I wouldn't go into work anymore because I wouldn't want to get that I wouldn't want to get a massive starting viral load in all of this and by the way to all those young people who feel this is a Boomer disease it's hit and it's hit in the elderly I'm not old you just need to get up on the data here because this could hit you and when it does hit you remember we talked about this yesterday if it does and you recover which you might because you're young you still might recover with permanent and serious lung damage as well the young pretender writes in replying here says I received this email from a friend a few minutes ago in the UK I just spoke to him he says students are in denial everybody is partying as normal restaurants and bars are full well probably in no small measure because the UK leadership has been absolutely abysmal in relaying the concern around all of this they've done a terrible job some are rights I'm full on practicing social distancing and I look out my window a few times every night restaurants and bars on my blocks still pass like sardines everything seems so normal not good right that's because people don't understand the basic data the basic science behind all of this they don't understand what the risk they're taking by potentially starting with a large inoculum rather than a small inoculum so they're out there in crowded bars so if you want to talk about creating inoculum chambers here's one they just created one at O'Hare Airport this is my personal nightmare right here Ben Hunt writes complete disarray that's kind then Brooke Geiger McDonald's said this is the scene at O'Hare Airport the traveler took the photo said it's a six-hour wait for bags then onto customs for two two more of waiting in shoulder-to-shoulder crowds police are handing out water and disinfectant wipes oh my god I'm not sure the wipes are gonna do any good but you know what I do I grew up playing Where's Waldo so I looked through all of these pictures carefully and I'm Laskin who's wearing a mask and I usually can't find a single person in pictures like this and that that's why all I would need to do is be standing right about there and here's somebody coughed over here and I'm just I would just crowd-surf my way out of there and be like just running on water get out of there this is a inoculum this is the street edition so we're not gonna be in the streets guess what no you can't put off st. Patty's Day certainly not revelers in the Irish Channel celebrated st. Patty's Day in New Orleans Saturday March 14th and gatherings large and small amid an outbreak nanny masks mmm they got magic alcohol that's gonna protect him right there manager Kalka hall all right doing it wrong the US Edition Kaiser Permanente this was from Saturday broad spectrum at peak Prosperity writing in member there says hello all I live in Southern California LA County here's a paragraph from the email that Kaiser sent out to its members if you're healthy you don't need a mask the CDC doesn't currently recommend the use of masks for most people only people who are sick with kovat 19 the honey badger virus and the people who are caring for them should wear face masks will provide masks to members and patients who have symptoms when they come to our facilities um one of their pieces of the advice on staying healthy they had seven bullet points one of them stay home when you're sick that's it that's the advice Thanks thanks that's awesome advice so this is really botched advice and even in CNN so this is CNN March 14th they're getting it right finally we were presented this data weeks and weeks ago that there is this thing called asymptomatic transmission I'm Stubb just curious how so much and so many health authorities can be behind the curve on this one but they are so check this out new studies reveal in several countries in large sorry news studies in several countries and a large coronavirus outbreak in Massachusetts which is my home state I'm recording the semester so this is personal bring into question reassuring assertions by US officials about the way the novel virus spreads these officials have emphasized that the virus is spread mainly by people who are already showing symptoms such as fever cough or difficulty breathing mainly who cares about mainly remember that simulation where you just opened the border a tiny bit and you just let that one infection come through right so mainly it's not good enough in this story not with this virus if that's true it's good news since people are obviously ill can be identified and isolated making it easier to control that break that was SARS we've known for over 50 days that this isn't the case we know if we've known for a long time that you it's not just the people who are obviously ill that you have to track we've known about asymptomatic transmission but it's just finally and finally making it into the national and international consciousness but not for Kaiser Permanente they didn't get that memo yet so listen up Kaiser people okay but it appears that in Massachusetts coronavirus cluster with at least 82 cases was started by people who are not yet showing symptoms in more than half a dozen studies have shown that people without symptoms are causing substantial amounts of infection more than half a dozen studies not a single study showing that they aren't causing anything but substantial amounts of infection let's read that again more than half a dozen studies have shown that people without symptoms are causing a substantial are causing substantial amounts of infection half a dozen and we presented one of those many many weeks ago so I don't even know how a big organization with billions and billions of dollars that scrapes you know massive healthcare premiums and has huge staffs couldn't find one of those studies and work that into their communications here because this is complete junk absolute garbage right for weeks federal officials have emphasized that asymptomatic transmission can happen but if said that it's not a significant factor in the spread of the virus on March 1st if on ABC's this week US Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex a czar told host George Stephanopoulos that a symptomatic spread is not the major driver of the spread of the new corona virus well again even if it's a minor driver isn't that important so continuing this particular article here in an article two weeks ago in the New England Journal of Medicine Bill Gates expressed concern about the spread of the disease by people who haven't yet developed symptoms only a bit sick writing there is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill or even pre-symptomatic which is another way of saying asymptomatic this will mean it'll be much harder to contain than MERS or SARS of course which we've known that for weeks all right on Tuesday dr. Sandra classic director of the Institute of medical biology in Frankfurt Germany tested 24 passengers who had just flown in from Israel 7 of the 24 passengers tested positive for corona virus four of those had no symptoms in classic was surprised to find that the viral load of the specimens from the asymptomatic patients was higher than the viral load of the specimens from the three patients who did have the symptoms all right their viral load was higher higher and these were the asymptomatic people okay so as soon as you get data like this we're all done boom you have to move fast in a situation like this we are all done there is nothing more to be said we don't have to gather any more data we are now operating on a new frame of reference which is that people with viral loads who are asymptomatic are a thing okay alright and you know of course that just this just I know I can't even tell you how disappointing it is to see people who should be well informed being that poorly informed and so speaking about the need for speed in a case like this let's turn now to this this is actually um it's a who executive director dr. Michael Ryan I told you there are good people working in the who this is one of them let's listen in now to dr. Michael Ryan talk about what you need to do in a disease like this outbreaks is you need to react quickly you need to go after the virus you need to stop the change the transmission you need to engage with communities very deeply community acceptance is usually important you need to be coordinated you need to be coherent you need to look at the other sectoral impacts of schools and security and economic so it's essentially many of those same lessons but the lessons I've learned after so many bola outbreaks in my career are be fast have no regrets you must be the first mover the virus will always get you if you don't move quickly and you need to be prepared and I I say this one of the great things in emergency response and anyone who's involved in emergency response will know this if you need to be right before you move you will never win the perfection is the enemy of the good when it comes to emergency manager speed Trump's perfection and everyone is afraid of making a mistake the consequence of error but the greatest error is not to move the greatest error is to be paralyzed by the fear of failure and I think that's the single biggest lesson I've learned in Ebola responses in the past yeah if you need to be right before you move you will never win it's the single greatest error that we see and so that paralysis is really important so to the gold-standard pandemic approach i now have to add some some information i said here clear consistent transparent frequent and timely communication very important but you have to move rapidly and with out perfect information that's why I've been bringing you this sort of information and that's why we've been so far ahead of the authorities and all this stuff because I didn't need to see for studies showing that there was a symptomatic transmission I just needed to see one and I'm gonna operate on the presumptive principle that's true and if it wasn't right I would come back and I would correct that of course all right and the reason we have to take this so seriously is of course case case cluster cluster boom that last exponential part catches people by surprise in the exponential analogy I use with the stadium and the in the drop of water and all of that says that those first 45 minutes you're like oh you know it's not so bad people are still in bars their coffin each other's faces everything's fine and then the last five minutes it's all over right it's just so fast it catches everybody by surprise but we should know that and our health authorities should know that of course they do know that and this guy completely is aware of that so when we look at things like this was a recording really interesting if you want to listen to it this is a transcription of the recording from a person a doctor inside of Italy this is pulled from the middle of that trans transcription I just wanted to share a few pieces with you so here he says you have no idea they don't say this on TV of how many young people I mean even 20 years old need CPAP which is a respiratory support and have horrible pneumonias with no core morbidities right these are healthy people they're not fat they're not heart disease page in there that they don't have cancer nothing no comorbidities right how many 70s born have pneumonias 70s born not you know born in the 70s right so take talking about their age you have pneumonias a ton it's unimaginable doctors aren't even there aren't even any devices even quarantined or screened without with a test anymore they tell you if you had a contact but have no symptoms come at work if you have symptoms you get the decision to work or stay home Wow it's tragic now they're hiring all non-specialized med graduates from PO clinic oh for example poly poly clinic oh that's where my girlfriend is we absolutely need people to understand this here's where we are in this story the u.s. is roughly ten days behind Italy this is where the national lockdown went on for Italy if the United States is smart this is where the national lockdown would go in somewhere in here we can see California's even further behind than that but we can see the remorseless relentless case progression of all of this there is guaranteed full stop a national quarantine coming for the United States in fact is coming for every place where this thing is spreading like this and that's pretty much guaranteed remember one of the reasons we're concerned is even if you are recovered maybe you're recovered with air quotes around that word or quotes around that word because actually you may have a semi-permanent or maybe even permanent lung function impairment and that would be a very bad thing so we talked about all these ways to avoid becoming infected in the first place I'm gonna put a new thing at the top here which is undertake extreme social distancing measures immediately you want to be you don't want to be one of those one and eight people who's moving about if you can begin to self isolate self quarantine not go anywhere not have contact with people just do that just do that right now if you have to go out you're gonna be wearing of course mask and if you're going to be in close contact you need the eye protection as well so if you can stay six feet away from people cool that's that's the way to do this all right so okay given all that now what I know how quarantines coming alright what do we do all right first thing you got a self isolate now just don't let that guy in okay just just don't do that the second thing is you want to make sure your house is a clean zone a green zone so that means that you're not letting people into your home that and this is going to be tough I totally get it and I'll cover some of that a little bit more in just a second but you want to make sure that your home is a place where you are safe and that's at least four peace of mind as well as that just makes a lot of sense this this is a well-managed gathering that's what gatherings are gonna look like for probably the next few months here and if you have to gather make sure it looks like that that that's how it's done and you want to stay at least six feet away from everyone we went out and about so this panic shopping that's going on right now let me see Where's Waldo mask no zero masks these people are actually greater in order to prepare for something in a panic because they weren't listening here fifty days ago they are now stuck in this very untenable situation but if you are gonna get stuck in that situation my goodness you should be wearing a mask of some sort and look at this case this woman is wearing a mask this woman's busy wiping her nose right here I don't know what happens next after that maybe she she picks up something off the aisle I don't know and you you know you really just need to be staying like this this is okay that's better spacing right there but the rest of this just looks like a thing I'd much much rather avoid all right so what does extreme social license isolation and distancing look like it means there's no more school I'm gonna get in this national quarantine this will all be enforced but you shouldn't have to wait there's no more going to restaurants there's no more going to bars no more concerts no more sporting events mass transit nope airplane trips nope cruises I mean do I really have to talk about cruises anybody I just heard about somebody who got on a cruise ship yesterday I'm just just shocked especially no playing bridge I'm talking to you mom now poker other games where items are passed around like cards chips other things where you're physically handing things around lots of studies show that this is one of the best ways to infect and be infected is to hand things back and forth to people and no more having friends over and no more stopping by a friend's house these are all really disruptive draconian things but this is what has to happen right away so you're at home and you're not seeing a lot of friends anymore of course we've got Skype and FaceTime and other things now which would really make that a lot less of a challenge than it was even I think ten years ago but so what do you do plant a garden this was the garden I had at my old house I'm gonna have one that looks a lot like that this spring I'm putting it in in my new place this is on a 50 by 70 plot so that's a tiny fraction of an acre you can get a lot done I had grape vines there so yes plant a garden this is something I would absolutely do with your kids if you've got kids at home plant that garden you want to you want to see how much food you can produce in the shortest amount of time possible we'll be talking about this and a lot greater detail because I see I'm already running long on this one but we're gonna cover this in a lot more detail because I think now now we're past the whole idea that you know the Paul Revere act is over I don't really have to go out and warn people all that much although surprisingly you still have to warn some people they don't get it and still the flu it's just the flu no it's not you know that that that's still happening but at any rate the question now becomes what are you gonna do with your time and how are you gonna use it how are you gonna use it wisely and instead of just defaulting into Audino video games and Netflix and all that other stuff it's time to use let's use it wisely this could be a real gift I think as well for a lot of people look we can learn a new language we could hone a skill and do lots of projects you clean and organize our our homes and get into that much lower level of clutter and those are all things that are really important to do as well so these are endorsed personal actions we still stick by our endorsed national actions here we think every one of these still makes sense we could add more to that if we wanted to remember this isn't the flu it really isn't it's not SARS shame on anybody who's still trying to claim it's you know the flu is more deadly and all that stuff the way this goes is case case case clustered cluster boom and we are almost at that boom stage so my conclusions for today when or if you do get the novel coronavirus you want is small a starting viral load is possible that gives you the best chance of not becoming one of those serious cases because you give your body time the time it needs to begin to mount an effective defense the boom that's going to come at a surprising speed that boom stage always comes at a surprising speed it's just that's just how it is welcome to exponential growth as of now we are expecting a continued 10x growth in cases every 14 days so that takes us from a hundred thousand to a million to ten million to a hundred million that's that's what we mean by that and that's just covering the next six weeks in this particular story okay as well you know things that are exponential that just surprised us just surprises us like like if you know if you're on ice and you're walking carefully and it's maybe that super slippery ice with just a little layer of snow on top you know it's just like extra slippery you know that's coming but if you slip on it it's still gonna be a surprisingly painful fall when it comes why because gravity operates exponentially right it's you know it's a squared function you are accelerating towards the ground so you're moving towards the ground exponentially faster it's just very hard for our human brains to understand exponential growth and exponential functions even though we're pulled to the earth by an exponential function every single day so you'd think we'd wire it up but nope hey even the under 50 crowd are getting slammed by this virus we hope it doesn't represent a mutation of any sort that's come along to make it more virulent for younger people but it this whole idea that it just hits old people is not true so let's make sure we combat that misinformation as well hey lockdowns work they really do so expect one to come much sooner than you might think remember things happen a lot faster than you might think with exponential functions I'll be surprised if the United States doesn't go into a national quarantine or lock down sometime this next week maybe as early as Monday this being recorded on Sunday of course each of us though has a vital role on this citizen about what the authorities are doing we all are responsible for flattening the curve that begins with you you're gonna have to take your own you're gonna have to figure out how to do your own social isolation and distancing you're gonna have to learn how to be one of the first people to wear a mask to not do handshakes to break the social customs that are in place that are actually the ones that are getting us all infected so that's up to each of us to do but you because you happen to be an early and fast adjuster so that's up to all of us but especially the people listening to this it didn't have to be this way it really didn't we had all this information fifty days ago and more so here we are we're gonna make the best of it and let's all pull together and do the best we can because this is actually going to call us all to greatness it's an extraordinary opportunity life has changed yesterday is gone there's a whole new tomorrow coming and it's up to us to decide who we're gonna be how we're gonna be and what we're gonna do with our time so with that I'm Chris Martenson I will talk to you next time be well be safe everyone goodbye hi folks Adam Taggart here Chris Martenson and I are the cofounders of peak prosperity if you want to get alerted whenever we release a new video from Chris just click the red subscribe button right beneath a YouTube video player once you've done that a little bell icon will appear right next to it click on that bell it looks like this and that's it the next time we publish a video from Chris you'll immediately receive a notification from YouTube thanks for watching our videos