If you’re betting on Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier you MUST bet on Max


Chael Sonnen


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we got max Holloway taking on Dustin Poirier that's a very interesting one and I haven't given you guys a full analysis of that but I am ready too right now and here is the thing you have to understand whenever I'm talking to you guys I don't talk to you with the fan and me I don't talk to you with the analyst in me I don't even talk to you with the fellow competitor in me I talk to you guys as though you are going to take my opinion and then go part with your money and some of you were betters and most of you are not but I speak to you all the same which is as fair and analytical and opinionated and in-depth as I can because I think that you're gonna go part with your money so I want to make sure that I at least do my part to influence you correctly I've been on quite a hot streak lately but overall I'm not wonderful at picking this my my opinions though leading in are we just see so many intangibles we see so many variables in the sport it's part of why athletes love it part of why fans love it it's part of why betters need to be careful well let me talk to you about Max and Dustin guys let me let me just leave it this you have to bet on max you have to bet on max if you're better and here's why Max is going to throw more punches and more kicks he is going to have a higher volume and a higher pace than Dustin is okay that's going to happen now let me put this in different terms for you I have to tell you guys something very funny just happened before we started recording this I'm in my room right now before we start recording this I ordered a pop I ordered myself a coca-cola the coca-cola came I knew at some point we're going to be interrupted with a light knock on the door what's funny about this is we got a knock on the door followed by somebody at the door shouting room service is here okay so doubly interrupted but now you know we record live so here's the thing if this were any other sport I'm talking about volume I'm talking about output I'm talking about guaranteed that max is going to do more than Dustin if this was a different sport let me use basketball by example okay the Lakers are getting ready to play the Suns if I tell you ahead of time the Lakers are going to try to score 100 baskets and the Suns and I guarantee you there's ahead of time are going to try to score sixty-five baskets just on that information I do not think you would have to get into home court advantage I do not think you would have to get in to who's scheduled and who's rested and who's playing and who's starting and whose records are better if I told you before the game for sure here's the numbers the Lakers are going to try to score 100 times and the Suns are going to try to score 65 times as a handicapper you would have to place your bets on the Lakers you just would that's how I feel this situation is Max is simply going to throw more strikes it's as simple as that if you're betting excuse me very hot in Atlanta good drink of my tasty soda okay now I'm well aware that there's still a conversation here okay where's the conversation begin well let's look at history as the greatest trajectory for the future and the fact that these guys have already fought and Dustin feed em so it's not as though somebody doesn't have a leg to stand on it doesn't have plenty of arguments that they could bring up for the Dustin Poirier side I'm just telling you if you don't know which way to go on this bet use the analogy that I just gave you of the basketball teams know who's going to try more things that's where you need to reasonably put your bet but you must also understand it's a gamble Dustin Poirier is already beat him there's something to be said for confidence Dustin Poirier knows that he could beat him because he has beaten him max also going into this contest has to know there's a lot on me right now I don't know what's gonna happen with my future I don't know what's gonna happen with my future 145 pounds are they even going to let me return it would appear to be a foregone conclusion that they will be stripping max Holloway of 145 pound championship belt particularly if he beats Dustin and particularly if that sets up with a fight with khabib that has been speculated on September in Abu Dhabi however even with a loss can max go back down I don't know the answer to that question but can he go back down is his belt still there yeah I think so I don't think he just gets stripped just because but had troubled 145 pounds in the past he's never missed it contrary to what popularly gets reported all the time he has never missed weight including the fight in New York against kebede he did not miss wait you guys have those details in those tight you're misremembering that but the point is fair that he has had a hard time making weight so now taking his eye off that 145 pound ball for the last three plus months I would imagine his body has grown at least a little bit and 145 may not sudden be something that he wants to do why do I bring that up well it's probably on his mind in some levels he probably is feeling a pressure he is probably feeling a do-or-die moment in conjunction with the fact that he's going in there against a guy who already got the jump on him once in the past and again if we were to look at history as the greatest prediction for the future that first fight has to mean something which is contrary to how I started this entire piece by telling you you must bet on max there's also something to be said for power I believe the power is with Poirier and as much as it does make sense to you guys that it makes sense to me as well that if max is going to throw more shots we just have to assume that max is going to be able to win I think that's fair Mike Tyson did not throw more shots than most of his opponents he just threw a hell of a lot harder shots so there is back to the conversation intangibles there are variables there are things that you don't consider I do think if you look at that first fight I know it's very easy for people to simply say well they're both totally different fighters now I don't know about that first off I don't know about that it does look to me that they are both better now if max today was fighting max of back then yes I would predict that max of today would kick old Max's ass if Dustin of today was fighting the Dustin of back then yes I would predict you that Dustin of today pick kicks old Dustin's ass that's not what happened it's max of today versus Dustin today I do think they're both better but I also think they progress at the same rate I think it was a positional issue in the last fight most of us are expecting a stand up battle I am one of those people I find their wrestling and their grappling to be very close I don't know that I even see one of them is having a meaningful advantage however in the last fight when it got on to the ground of which Dustin initiated Dustin was able to advance position not only wants to pass guard not only a second time to get to mount but three times to get to a mounted triangle which he then transitioned into an armbar so if you were to look at that first fight you would say Sheila how could you say that Dustin is much better on the ground I don't know about that regardless of what we saw I don't know about that I don't even know if he was much better that night I think that he had an element of surprise and that isn't to be a knock on Dustin I'm just sharing with you guys that if you look at that first fight particularly the ending sequence and you think wait these guys are gonna fight again this is an easy one I don't think it's quite so easy I think that you do have a very different fight on your hands and there is a question of what propelled both of these guys and it does tie back to Conor McGregor and many ways when max fought Conor McGregor and Conor's only a second fight in the company max was brought in as a 20 year old that was supposed to get beat up later we found out that Conor actually in his second fight within the company took out one of the greatest fighters to exist the point is max use that as a real motivation and I don't know why he's never spoke on that I mean everybody I heard anybody asked him point-blank max why why was a loss at 20 years old - Conor McGregor on an undercard something that motivated you so much because we were to look at your career in your history in your resume in your fights and the results of said contests it would appear by the data in front of us that was a turning point how come and the same could be said for Dustin port Dustin pori has always been a great fighter always but they're very much appeared to be something again if you were to go back and look at his schedule and look at his past and his his or and his resume and the outcomes and the results of those contests that there was a turning moment in the loss to Conor McGregor so many guys get beat in so many guys hang their head and never come back we see that all the time we very rare see somebody get beat and there was something about that loss that was so motivating it drove them to championship fights and main events and top contender spots years and years and yet another year to come excuse me coca-cola but that is exactly what happened here and I don't know I have my own opinions but I don't know I also haven't ever asked Dustin Poirier Point Blank and I haven't heard anybody else ask him point blank but I do have an opinion I think there was a lot of pressure on those fights and as much as I want to say Conners fight versus Max was an undercard fight that's me be very condescending because I was on the card and I was the main event and I'm trying to shine my own wheels the reality is they were the main event of and then fill in the blank remember all the platforms back then from the Facebook to the the fight pass to the FS - to the FS what remember all those different platforms they were the main event of one of those and at 20 year old 20 years old for max all of the notoriety and all of the pressure and all of the excitement that was surrounding Conor I think that was a very big moment I think he had a lot on him and I think he knew full well while the world still hadn't yet that he was in there with more than just a showman he was in there with a real skilled athlete I think those pressures I think being that close to victory but seeing defeat I think that is what enabled him to not only get up in the morning not only push and drive and do all the things that need to be done to be great at the sport but I think it also allowed him to deal with future pressures I think as he worked his way up the Cardin even got into those title fights in those big fights josée Aldo comes to mind Brian Ortega comes to mind I think he already had a calmness that was built-in I think he's looking around going him a bit of a veteran of this even if I got my comeuppance on an undercard in Boston I was still only 20 years old I still had a lot on me I think the same thing goes for Dustin Poirier I think it was a pressure issue I think Dustin Poirier was under a lot you guys might even remember that fight it's Conor McGregor with Dustin he goes at Dustin goes into the hotel he's trying to check in he's all by himself Conor comes up to him he's got two or three friends he confronts Dustin right there at check-ins in their t-shirts in their street clothes somebody happened to pick it up on camera I mean Dustin had to deal with stuff there was a welcoming party there was press conferences where he was being ridicule where he was being laughed at where he's being teased and ultimately there was a fight where he did not fare very well boy did he bounce back boy did he recover and boy does he belong to be here tomorrow night I mean he belongs here it's the right thing to do - I will I also must say this about Dustin and not so much about max max has had this in the past max had this kind of a coming-out party in the past before Dustin this is something that we the fans wanted this wasn't just him working hard and him scratching scratching inclined this is something we observed him doing we observed how many times he was slighted we observed how many times he could have been put in that spot but for whatever reason wasn't and there's other guys like him but when it happens we do tend to feel a little bit drawn towards him ago hey what you know enough this guy's got to be given the opportunity whether he gets it or not whether he achieves it or not that's on him it's got to be given the opportunity and I think that's right I think that's right and I think that's a something why we are so drawn to this fight it isn't just to see who can win the rematch it isn't just to see who's gonna be the interim champion and set up the compete fight further down the road the storyline for the division in 2019 it really is because Dustin Poirier entertained us sacrificed himself and deserves a title opportunity