Peace Prosperity Kim Jongun suspends military action plans whats his intentions

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hello welcome to peace and prosperity we are back with a new format to examine the emerging issues including peace on the Korean Peninsula I'm your host dr. William shield her relations between two Koreas which were walking on thin ice have made a drastic turn from the rising tensions to the suspension of interactions we will touch upon all these issues to figure out Karin's hidden religions and agendas with experts Namjoo connect Munchausen Cadiz Atwell Finland negative he does Alpo he chased and written video [Music] [Music] Oh Tom don't concentrate on Taha go Tottenham in country ham baaga 1970 Churchill ETO table yet again recycle don't electorate or your head Samira [Music] today we are joined by two experts mr. Kim yong-joon Internet her lawyer is with us welcome me and dr. Zhang Yan of his own Institute director of Chinese studies welcome thank you all right my first question goes to dr. Lee we have a very dramatic turnaround of events in recent period from the blow up of the liaison office in Kaesong on the 16th and the suspension announced by mr. Kim jong-un of military actions toward South Korea on June 23rd what accounts for ups and downs of North Korea's actions just like what you said the dramatic nature of the escalation and de-escalation is such that it one the one hand relieved people because attention reduced at the same time people are confused what's happening but I think that the whole thing may have been planned out it's just like you know all the school of thought negotiation good cop and bad cop by pedaling back the tension Kim jong-un play the role of good cop who contained the crisis by escalating tension kim yo-jong when he talked about kim yo-jong you know a lot of debates about whether she is or not she's number two figure in North Korea but through this crisis she clearly establish herself as the number two figure in North Korea okay mr. Kim dr. Lee mentioned the new person in this drama chairman Kim jong-un's sister kim yo-jong playing bad cop Wow her brother Kim don't plays good cop what is behind this a good cop bad cop or the emergence of Jamia zone yeah it's a naturally reasonable analysis to look at this as a good cop bad cop we are combination I think the Kim jong-un's objective is to 4th one is as dr. Lee mentioned this is kind of a testing ground for kim yo-jong how to see how she holds up under international cool air and whether she credibly plays a role of in a bad person bad cop number two to see what the international community's reaction to the provocation as well as the community on section so that's a Kim Jong Un's objective but one thing to remember is there's only one cup which is Kim jong-un there's no good kapa haka she is allowed to play the role of bad cop and actually not allowed she's actual order to play the role of bad cop so he can preserve the role of good cop when the time is right so you have to remember it's all one cop that's Kim Jong yeah there's only one cop calling all the shots dr. Lee considering that there's only one cup what do you expect from this time on from Kim Jong Un's North Korea because the preliminary session of the Central Military Committee announced that military actions have been suspended or postponed not terminated or cancelled so is there any chance for North Korea to resume provocations well you mentioned that it's a crisis it's a military action it's suspended not terminated 10mins that the fundamental nature of the crisis is still there yeah it's just postponed and I think another meaning that we could drop from this crisis that of course you know there is a one single omnipotent good cop that we just heard at the same time that good cop also decides the speed of the crisis when said of the crisis termination of the crisis so expansion of the crisis so it is mr. Kim and Kim only himself who is calling the shots on the Korean Peninsula and I think that by holding out that there is a possibility of follow-up military action I think it is sending a warning to South Korea particularly South Korean president moon jae-in that I'm gonna you know I have this option and let me see what you know economic package particularly you could offer to me I'll decide my action after what I see you mean your presentation other rounds of provocation is not up to fiscal calendar or time but it's how South Korea and other countries would respond right I think she plays that game and I injuries so I think that's why we into the pink it's very important for us to not just to be shaped by the flow of this drama which is directed by Kim jong-un but I think it's also important for us to set the drama the tone of the drama that sending a very clear signal of deterrence in a military on a lot at the same time also sending another signal to the door for dialogue is open so that you know we give them option instead of being decided by North Korea's options but Mr Kim although it seems like kim jongwan wants to be able to call all the shots yeah I heard that there are a lot of troubles and crises impose upon North Korea like food crisis economic crisis at the core of the sanctions and shielding national border is between China and North Korea are stopping virtually all trades does Kim Jong has the capacity to call the shots how bad is North Korean situation actually well speculating on North Korean leaders health status is more difficult than speculating on behalf so get Soviet leaders health status that during the final years of Soviet Union but having said that I think there is something that's causing him to disappear for a few days and but partly it was staged I would speculate but partly it was necessitated so as long as a person says they did I think Kim Jong was trying to also partly staged it for maximum feedback for whatever he wanted but let's look at the last four years from North Koreans perspective 2017 the year of fire and fury with the September nuclear test and then 2018 dramatic summits with lots of hope and 2019 year of patiently waiting and waiting and waiting and then what happened 2020 was the global pandemic superseded everything else so Kim Jong is in a situation where he's completely forgotten and being passed by the world so that's the situation he's in right now so this provocation is his reminder to the world I'm still here I'm still waiting for some economic and political relief and that's not being given to me and you need to deal with this that that's his kind of a reminder to see how the world is reacting you'd have to remember September 2016 two months before the US president's election there was a fifth nuclear test and that caused a lot of speculation as to how the u.s. might respond I happened to be in the Philadelphia two days after that with President Obama and a bunch of Hillary campaign advisers are talking about this and because of a symmetric damage to South Korea versus North us really doesn't have much option so this is another pivotal election year so we'll have to watch what happens next few months director Lee seems fair to say that North Korea aim to divert it whatever criticism among North Korean people toward the leadership because of all these crisis problems to outside world do you think Kim jong-un regime has achieved this tactical goal with a provocation so far what this is a matter of perception I think that how we manage this perception or gap is very important for example but it's blowing up this inter-korean liaison office a lot of South Korean people who used to be sympathetic to the North Korean situation we are like disillusioned we are like disenchanted are like a lot of there are moral hardliners we should have a very clear deterrence show you a signal warning to North Korea but at the same time brother and sister team may think oh we made a very good game of good cop and bad cop and we created this drama we have been very successful I think this kind of a different judgment perceptional gap is also what drives different tactics so I think it's a very important one so again for South Korea to give a very clear signal to of deterrence to North Korea before North Korea Kim jong-un in the decide what steps including military provocation steps that it he may or may not decide very interesting let's turn to an expert with an international perspective on this matter joining us live from the United States is mr. Roger Baker senior vice president of strategy analysis as Stratfor welcome to our program thank you for having me you're very welcome first question is what is your channel and Kim jong-un's a recent decision to withdraw from the threats of military actions well I think that North Korea really thrives maintaining perception of unpredictability and as your guests have already mentioned there's sort of this up and down behavior by the North Koreans it's leaving everyone on edge not quite sure what they're going to do next and in that sense it allows the North Koreans to be able to define and shape the way in which the relationship is going to play forward so if I'm the North Koreans right now and if I'm thinking in the mind of kim giman what i want to do is be able to show that here I can raise tensions I can lower tensions but also by lowering tensions if you think about the timing he lowered tensions just before the anniversary of the start of the Korean War and he lowered tensions at a moment where the South Korean leadership was under a lot of political stress because of the change in dynamics on the peninsula I say you know the series of provocation by North Korea happened to be coincided with a timing of the publication of mr. John Bolton's memoir the former national security adviser in the White House and according to what he said in the memoir the ability of Washington to make a nuclear deal with Pyongyang is zero first do you agree with his assessment second is there any possibility that North Koreans having read the memoir would change those tragic behavior in any ways so let me reverse the order of the answer and I would say that the North Koreans are already fairly sure of what the u.s. is willing to do and unwilling to do in regards to the relationship I don't think the book fundamentally alters the way in which the North Koreans view this they may be concerned about ways in which the book shapes perceptions of North Korea but certainly they're they're not surprised by the idea I don't think that there is a possible nuclear deal that fits both the u.s. in the North Korean section of the nuclear deal if the u.s. truly wants the North Koreans to remove all of their nuclear weapons and all of their capability to have nuclear weapons that that's just not a possible deal the North Koreans believe that these are something that they must maintain if a nuclear deal is dismantling the the capability to produce more weapons potentially putting in additional observers and granting North Korea more access to the International Finance and international investment there's a possibility of a deal but I think politically in the United States there's no trust that that would be a deal that would be maintained I see well we talked about the bad cop miss kim yo-jong and according to him in the statements the message were really clear to the moon' gentleman of South Korea do not look over the shoulder to the United States but make decisions take actions do you assess that United States government would change its existing stance toward North Korea I mean sanctions in any ways right now it really doesn't look like the u.s. is interested in easing off on North Korea and easing off on the sanctions certainly what the North Koreans are wanting to do is have these sanctions backed off it's very difficult for them they're able to keep their economy going in some sense but if you look at Kim jong-un he's wanted to experiment with certain aspects of capitalism within a very controlled environment it's extremely difficult to do that right now so for the United States as we're heading close to the election it looks like the administration wants to keep its focus on China on playing both a strong hand and identifying China as the bad guy well also not undermining the trade deal and that means that that's going to be the primary focus easing up on North Korea doesn't look likely between now and November finally I'd like to hear your thoughts about Kim jong-un's decision to suspend not terminate military actions originally scheduled how would you assess the possibility were timing of it that Kim jong-un might with provocation in your future well I think if you look at the multiple statements that come out of North Korea they've talked about stepping up their frontline forces but they've also talked about strengthening their deterrent and in the end of the North Koreans well they're shaping these messages towards South Korea their primary concern is the United States and that means that if they're talking about deterrent they're going to be talking about missiles in the nuclear force and we would anticipate that sometime in the next several months we may see a resumption of say intermediate-range missiles or more likely an expansion or another round of tests of North Korea's attempts at submarine-launched missiles because they believe that that gives them at least a little bit more surprise and that creates some strategic space in negotiations with the United States yeah that has been vice president of strategic analysis as Stratfor mr. Roger Baker joining us today thank you so much for sharing your insights and analysis thank you for having me you two gentlemen any general takes on what mr. Roger Baker said of the current situations and North Korea's behavior mr. Kay yes I generally agree with mr. Baker's analysis I'll focus at a couple of points one is is a description description or analysis of John Bolton's comment about there being zero chance of a deal I think that is correct in the sense there's zero chance of a type of deal that Trump is looking for which is very black and white now nearly impossible but mr. Baker did mention there's a range of options in terms of say nuclear freeze versus of nuclear scrapping and step-by-step various scenarios but another point that mr. Baker made also I agree with which is where there's a public administration or Democrat demonstration from the American point of view that there is very little appetite in the comedy North Korea right now or even in the future because even problem is the Democrats are generally unified as far as how they view North Korea is a terrible regime for different reasons Republicans generally tend to view negatively because of anti-communist ideological point of view on Cold War mentality whereas democratic government generally look at it from human rights abuse and other she may return issues but both are unified in terms of view north is the national security threat to be dealt with in a kind of unified way so so I generally read mr. Baker's analysis definitely well she made a very interesting point that the even though North Korea's actions was done against South Korea but the message was meant to be heard in Washington that was very perceptive and I totally agree baited dr. Baker what what that also means is that South Korea is seen by North Korea as a weakling among this trilateral relationship and it gives us moment to think about for South Korea strategy in a way soul-searching if you remember what kim yo-jong said was that Kim Iran said enemy is after all enemy I just can't believe she said that ah because this is South Korea's progressive liberal government and the president moon jae-in is probably the most lenient willing to engage North Korea I think it gives us a moment to think about whether it is still okay for us to continue our current North Korean policy or it's time to ship to Plan B I think it is something people in the decision-making process to think about at the same time this time I really North Korea table dilemma to present moon jae-in in a way that this is his bona fide presidential legacy supposed to be a legacy but then the Kim brother and sister team totally destroyed what is supposed to be President Mandela's legacy and reduced his political space and diplomatic space on Korean Peninsula so that I think it president Mun Jane is really in a dilemma right now but president moon Jane remained resilient and resolved to make the upgrade of the Constitution's of course toward a demilitarized zone between the two Koreas with his speech in commemoration of the you know the first inter-korean summit meeting that took place 2000 and he anniversary of the Korean War which was a 25th of June he vowed to pursue relentlessly higher level of peaceful coexistence and some you know bold moves prevent pre-emptive moves to move things forward with North Korea do you think he is a message is going to be carried out in concrete actions it's a good tell when it comes to evaluating president moons you know I'm playing better cop and you're playing a good cop I think that you know it's it's understandable to continue to be sympathetic and the sustainer hope truth North Korea but at the same time you know I'm a person who analyzed socialist system North Korea and China they're both socialist systems and that they are they call themselves as a strategic country what they Minster when the national strategy changes shipped personal feelings or sympathy it's they put aside what the means is that our way about approaching North Korea and those squares approach to South Korea may be near completely different I think North Korea now in a way brutally speaking find South Korea not very useful in this game well I mean mr. Kim dr. Lee mentioned the situation is really bad because of the South Korean public so disappointment if not anger about North Korea's provocation and mister Baker also mentioned lack of trust in Washington or became generation but you also mentioned there might be a crack in the dark room showing light what do you think is there any possibility that the president moon geun's initiatives first will be made despite using sanctions and second maybe barring some fruits well going back to the question about how kim yo-jong is describing the South Korean government as enemy if you think about it ironically that sort of accusation works only against the Liberal government because if you said that to a conservative em in the South is a everybody will show up because that's the way it is so that's all right that has already rattled the South Korean government into action so it is working so that they know exactly what they're saying in terms of making that accusation in putting aside the question of fair or not fair having said that from North Korean perspective the rest of this year will be a balancing act I walking the tightrope between reminding the u.s. political leaders whether this administration or if there's a change of government and also not overstepping that sort of boundary or tightrope because if if Kim Jong somehow makes provocation crossing the line whatever that is Trump will react different from Obama especially in this very unpredictable year pandemic and lots of crisis and tension points them so that's the tightrope up Kim jong-un will have to walk next six month and see what happens you mention it described as a tight rope but uh doesn't Kim Jo and have a kind of a game plan well big objective but not necessary doesn't really have many cards other than the cards that are really known the card of playing bad cop in a predictable way but beyond that he is in a position of waiting for the world to give him something so which is very different from because it really doesn't have much to give what the world wants him to give he doesn't want to give up so that's a difficulty so okay well I think as Kim Jones potential card I think he will turn more to the China and Russia for the remaining years while not turning to South Korea for the unfulfilled economic package so I think he will try to solicit I try to get that from alternative alumina and Russian in addition to the eight you know what is 800 million tons of grains from China yes okay and also don't forget this is the 70th anniversary of China and North Korea it's a bloom diploma relations study supposed to get very special your freedom yeah there's a special year another special day on the calendar is the scheduled opening of the Central Military Commission plenary session not the preliminary session during which Kim German announced the suspension of military provocations so what is going to happen if and when that Central Military Commission of workers party is a plenary session we'll be gathered well if Kim jong-in is going to decide this some sort of military action probably she is going to do that without making announcement this is the North Korean way but then if he tries to use that kind of appearance holding a session using pulled himself as a political leader I think a possible the next step of provocation more moderate propagation step is probably destroying probably the Kaesong Industrial Complex or also destroying the of tourism facilities in Mount Kumgang as a second step of North Korea style of destruction before embarking on any military provocations to the South Korea I see right director Zhang Yun and mr. kim jung thank you so much for joining us in this program and sharing your insights today yes thank you for everything this is where we wrap our program today please join us again same time next week thanks for watching [Music]

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